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Fremantle vs Gold Coast Predictions, Tips & Odds – Round 15 AFL

The round ends in what looks like a cracker as Fremantle host Gold Coast in a clash that could make the top eight.

After pumping out Melbourne by 92 points before the bye, the Dockers looked a little complacent when they went out and lost to the Western Bulldogs by 67 points last Saturday at Marvel.

Adding insult to injury, Freo boasted one of the league’s best defenses but conceded 23.11 (149) as their pressure melted away in the face of the Doggies’ attacks. To be fair the Dogs fielded one of their best midfields of the season but Marcus Bontempelli had been ill all week and still racked up 30 possessions and three goals!

It was enough to make Dockers coach Justin Longmuir come out and say this unprompted at his midweek press conference: “There’s no doubt in the seniors at the weekend that the lads were more concerned about how many possessions they got than of how they competed in the contest. how they pressured the opposition and how they defended. That’s not what I represent as a coach.”

Pretty damning words really and it could set the stage for Freo to hit hard against the Gold Coast.

With the Dockers players seemingly owning their efforts last week, this could be a serious opener between Fremantle’s midfield and a Suns on-the-ball unit that also loves the hard stuff!

Gold Coast still have to prove they are more than home bullies. In home games at Carrara and Darwin they boast a 7-0 record, while elsewhere there have been six defeats by an average of 32.5 points.

The Suns showed serious determination to pull off a fantastic 11-point win over Essendon in Round 12, but then gave away a whole heap of goodwill in losing to St Kilda by three points. Sure, Gold Coast made a very tough call against Mac Andrew that ultimately decided the game, but a team that scored 31 points in the last quarter against Essendon shouldn’t only score 48 for a whole game , despite succeeding at the strangulation tactics of Ross, the boss. !

Considering they just had a bye from that result, we can also see the Suns wanting to bounce back hard. To that end, coach Damien Hardwick has dropped the likes of Brayden Fiorini, Nick Holman, Jed Walter and Ned Moyle, but the biggest exit is surely striker Ben King, who has averaged nearly three goals a game this season.

King is out with a knee infection, but with 38 goals to his name, it’s no stretch to say they need him back pretty quickly in the run to the finals. The Suns do get skipper Jarrod Witts back, but losing King is a huge blow that could decide this contest.

It’s also no understatement to say that this game could decide whether any of these sides reach the finals. Freo are currently eighth on 30 points, just ahead of 10th placed Gold Coast who have 28. A win for either team could be huge at the end of the season.

At the end of the day, we can’t trust Gold Coast to win on the road as they haven’t done so all season despite coming close last time out. We suspect Fremantle will be watching what St Kilda did to the Suns and will be looking to replicate that defensive shutdown. With them still boasting an excellent defense and Ben King absent, they should be able to do so.

We still think this will be pretty close and the contests will be red-hot, especially early on. The last time they played at Norwood Oval in the Gather Round last year, Freo had to come from 23 down at half-time to beat the Suns by 10 points. We think Sunday’s game could be just as close, but Freo will have a serious focus on their defence, making the points total below look more attractive too.

Prediction and best bet: Fremantle 1-39 at $2 (Sportsbet)

Value bet: Fremantle 1-39 x Under 157.5pts @ $3.25 (Sportsbet Standard Multi)

Kay Matchup: Caleb Serong vs. Matt Rowell/Noah Anderson